SEND Forecasting
We have extensive experience of producing SEND forecasting models, building robust models from a range of person level data on your cohort. This gives you robust evidence with which to plan for the upcoming need in your area.
Our SEND forecasts are built from the ground up, meaning we start with your current cohort and model each young person’s journey through the system, accounting for new people being identified with SEND, population movement and changes in birth rates. This gives decision makers the information they need to confidently plan their SEND provision and budgets, as well as to meet key statutory requirements.
We know from our previous work that underlying assumptions around identification and provision practices can make a real difference to the forecasts. That is why we always provide an interactive modelling tool (example below), which has been co-produced with local authorities, that allow you to tweak the key underlying assumptions and see the impact those have on projected numbers.
We will usually produce an initial ‘unmitigated’ scenario for discussion, followed by a ‘planned’ scenario which takes into account the interventions you are making, or plan to implement in future.
