Introduction
In recent years, the number of young people with education, health and care plans (EHCPs) has risen significantly, and this trend is set to continue. In this three-part briefing series we use our Wandsworth Mime SEND Forecasting Model to explore our forecast for the future size and makeup of England’s EHCP cohort.
Our novel modelling approach allows us to understand how cohorts grow as they age through the system, see the impact of new EHCPs, and to account for overall population projections. Robust forecasting is essential for proactive planning, enabling policymakers, local authorities, and schools to anticipate the challenges ahead and allocate resources effectively.
In this first briefing in our series of three, we present our:
- Projections for the growth of the EHCP cohort over the next 15 years
- Explanation of how this growth is distributed by age group and what that means for provision
- Exploration of the factors driving the projected growth
Subsequent briefings will dive deeper into:
- How the needs within the EHCP cohort are changing and what this implies for planning support
- The role of effective inclusion in mainstream education as a vital component in addressing these challenges.
By examining the data and trends presented here, we aim to underscore the urgency of addressing this issue and provide a foundation for informed, strategic planning to support young people with the most complex SEND effectively. At a time when the government is planning changes to the SEND sector, this data and intelligence is more crucial than ever.
The growing EHCP cohort
The number of EHCPs has more than doubled in eight years, from 256,300 young people in 2016, to 576,500 in 2024. Our forecast shows that there is even further growth to come, with the number of young people with an EHCP in England projected to reach almost one million by 2040.
Informed by DfE data, ONS population projections and our tried and tested forecasting methodology, which includes modelling growth by age and primary need, we have produced a forecast for England’s EHCP cohort over the next 15 years. This forecast, displayed in the animation below, projects that by 2040, the number of young people with an EHCP in England will increase to over 920,000. This is around a 60% growth from the size of the cohort in 2024. This model factors in the impact of changes to the school-age population, including the falling birth rate across England, and assumes that current practices around EHCPs, such as the rates at which they are requested and issued, remain similar to recent years.
Figure 1 – Forecasted growth in England’s EHCP cohort in the next 15 years
To put this growth into perspective, the chart below shows how the overall cohort of 0 to 25 year olds with an EHCP has grown since 2016, along with the numbers we are forecasting to 2040 represented by the dashed line. Our forecasts project that the cohort will grow at a broadly similar rate to recent years until the early 2030s, when growth will begin to slow and ultimately plateau by the late 2030s.
Figure 2 – Historic and projected growth in the size of England’s total EHCP cohort
Below we delve deeper into how this cohort is projected to look at different points throughout the next 15 years.
Snapshots of the forecasted growth in England’s EHCP cohort
Our forecast for 2026 is shown in the figure below. The overall size of the EHCP cohort is projected to grow to almost 660,000, an increase of over 80,000 young people, or over 14%, from 2024. In broad terms, this change from 2024 is a combined result of 160,000 new EHCPs being issued, growth in the school-age population adding around 4,000 EHCPs, and the cessation of around 83,000 existing EHCPs.
Figure 3 – England’s forecasted EHCP cohort in 2026
As demonstrated by the hashed areas on the bars in the figure above, reception age children see the largest number of new EHCPs being issued. Also, secondary age children are issued fewer new plans compared to primary age children. The model assumes plans are being ceased for Year 14 students onwards (denoted by the white sections of the bars). Our assumptions around ceasing numbers are based on historical patterns for different primary needs. While in practice plans may occasionally be ceased earlier than Year 14, the numbers are very small and, therefore, discounted from our modelling.
Looking ahead to 2030, our model (demonstrated in the figure below) projects that the number of young people in England with an EHCP will have risen to over 800,000. This is an increase of around 40% in the six years from 2024. However, it should be noted that this growth is not distributed evenly across age groups – the largest growth is seen among secondary age young people. The number of secondary school aged pupils with an EHCP is projected to grow almost 50% by 2030, compared to a 27% growth among young people among primary school age pupils.
Figure 4 – England’s forecasted EHCP cohort in 2030
Finally, as we reach 2040, it is projected that the cohort of young people with an EHCP in England will have reached over 920,000, as shown in the figure below. This would be a 60% growth in the 16 years from 2024. This substantial growth will place additional financial strain on local authorities and schools and, if there is insufficient investment in state-funded provision, costs may be driven up even further by reliance on expensive independent specialist placements. This forecast underlines the importance of improving inclusion in mainstream settings so that local authorities are better able to meet need locally and cost-effectively.
Figure 5 – England’s forecasted EHCP cohort in 2040
Future pressure in secondary
As mentioned above, the forecast growth in secondary is larger than for primary. Looking in more detail at the separate primary (aged 5 to 10 years old) and secondary (aged 11 to 15 years old) cohort forecasts in the chart below, we can see that the primary cohort (green line) is projected to grow for the next few years before plateauing in around 2028. However, for the secondary cohort (purple line), we see that there is instead an uptick in growth, before plateauing much later. These different growth forecasts are driven by two key factors:
- As a result of the recent large growth in the number of primary age young people with an EHCP, secondary age cohorts are being replaced by larger younger cohorts as they age through the system, resulting in an uptick in growth. Note that this vastly outweighs the impact of the projected fall in the secondary age population
- Our model assumes that practice around the rate of requests for EHCP assessments remains similar to recent years. As much of the primary age cohort is made up of people with relatively recently issued EHCPs, we therefore see an early plateauing in this cohort
Figure 6 – Historic and projected growth in England’s primary and secondary age EHCP cohorts
Therefore, while there is projected to be a slight increase in the need for primary specialist provision and support in the coming years, the secondary age cohort is where the greatest need for additional support is likely to be required. With a larger secondary age cohort also comes the possibility of more young people with SEND falling out of mainstream education. We know, for example, that secondary age students with EHCPs are more likely to be NEET, to be educated outside a school, or to experience emotionally based school avoidance, each bringing distinct support needs. It is therefore essential to focus on understanding and addressing the underlying causes that lead young people into these situations.
Looking further into the future, the increased need at secondary will in turn result in growing numbers requiring specialist support at post-16, and then into early adulthood. This is particularly worrisome as the support that young people can access through EHCPs ceases at 25 years old. This could leave growing numbers of young adults requiring additional support entering an already overstretched adult care system.
Conclusion
Using the Wandsworth Mime SEND Forecasting Model, we have explored how the size of England’s EHCP cohort is projected to change over the next 15 years. The forecasted growth is stark and there is likely to be a large increase in the need for support for secondary age pupils in particular. There are question marks over how this additional need within the SEND system will be met.
We welcome the recent news on the government’s plans to invest £740 million to expand specialist units within mainstream schools and increase the number of places in special schools, although more investment will be needed in future. The new high needs funding guidance allowing local authorities to use their capital funding for children with SEND to create additional places in local, mainstream schools, should also help to alleviate some of the additional pressure on the system. However, as highlighted in our recent research with London Councils, there is a mixed picture when it comes to how well mainstream schools support young people with SEND. Improving inclusive practice in these settings must be a central part of the response to ensure this growing cohort can be appropriately supported, and we will discuss this further in the third briefing in this series.
The model we have discussed here represents an “unmitigated” scenario, where practices around, for example, requests for new EHCPs and refusing requests for new EHCPs remain similar to recent years. However, this growth is not inevitable. In particular, investment in stronger a universal offer and more effective SEN Support can ensure that more young people with SEND have their needs met without the need for an EHCP. In our final briefing in this series, we explore how changes like this may impact the growth of the cohort.
We will also be diving deeper into how the specific needs of the cohort may change over time, and what the data can tell us about the nature of the future support required.
Read the second briefing in the series here.
Get in touch if you would like to hear more and discuss how we can support with your forecasting requirements!
