The 2026 SEND reforms present the most significant change to the special educational needs system in a decade. For local authorities, one of the biggest challenges is the ability to benchmark trends specific to their area and understand if interventions have been successful. This is crucial for planning provision and budgeting.
That’s why today we are launching Mime’s SEND Benchmarking Club, which has the only detailed benchmarking dataset for the SEND reforms of its kind.
The Club, which is free and straightforward to join, brings together two complementary pieces of analysis in a tool that creates clear, comparative insight:
- A new regional forecast for EHCP growth across England, broken down by age group and primary need type.
- Benchmarking data from 15 local authorities Mime has worked with directly, showing how they expect their EHCP cohorts to grow, what provision they plan to expand, and what they predict this will mean for costs and High Needs budgets.
The analysis is underpinned by Mime’s EHCP Cohort Component Projection Model which has now been used by many local authorities across England and delivered 99% accuracy.
What does the data tell us?
Mime’s SEND Benchmarking Club data shows significant regional differences for EHCP growth over the next five years. Nationally the EHCP cohort is expected to grow by more than 40% taking the number of plans to over one million by 2031. This is in line with the upper end of Mime’s forecast for England’s EHCP cohort we published last year. But growth is expected to vary substantially between regions, with the fastest growth predicted in the East Midlands, and the lowest in London and the North East.
And growth is increasingly likely to be concentrated among secondary-age and post-16 students, together accounting for around three quarters of the growth.
What are local areas doing to plan for the change?
There are 15 local areas already signed up to Mime’s SEND Benchmarking Club and with each new member the tool becomes an increasingly valuable source of shared intelligence across the sector, particularly when combined with our regional projections that cover the whole of the country.
All the founding member local authorities are planning to expand specialist bases in mainstream schools, with the number of places expected to more than double over the next four years.
While most are expecting independent and non-maintained special school placements to grow a little, they are planning for this growth to be much slower than the growth of the EHCP cohort.
The data highlights the significant difference in the cost of placements. A mainstream placement with a specialist base costs around £15K per pupil each year, rising to over £20k in some areas. State funded special school placements cost £30K while independent placements cost £45K on average and as high as £70k in some areas.
Despite efforts to expand mainstream provision, local areas are expecting their High Needs Budgets to increase by 25-30% on average over the next two years because of the continued growth of children and young people with EHCPs.
Why should local authorities join the Mime SEND Benchmarking Club?
Understanding variation between regions and areas helps ensure comparisons are meaningful, reflect your local context, and provide genuinely useful insights
From forecasting need to understanding the response, the Club provides insights that gives members clarity on what is working and where there are priorities for change. Not only learning from their own data, but from other members too. Understanding variation between regions and areas helps ensure comparisons are meaningful, reflect your local context, and provide genuinely useful insights
We have designed the Club to make complex information easier to interpret and act upon. Interactive maps and colour-coded analysis allow senior leaders and commissioners to identify patterns, test assumptions and have informed discussions on where to focus investment and resources.
As the UK’s leading SEND data specialist, Mime will host webinars for Club members to talk through common challenges and effective solutions. Members will be invited to share their experiences, learn from each other and Mime’s unique perspective, based on two decades of experience, supporting more than 50 local authorities and their partners.
The Club is now open. Founding members and Mime clients can join for free. If you want to join, please email Joe Miller, Mime Associate Director leading our work on SEND Reforms on joe.miller@mime.org.uk
