Introduction
The previous briefings in this series have used our Wandsworth Mime SEND Forecasting Model to explore how the size and makeup of England’s cohort of young people with an EHCP is likely to change in the coming years. We forecast that nearly a million young people in England will hold an EHCP by 2040.
While some of the growth in the EHCP cohort is driven by changes in underlying need and better identification, some is a result of the lack of a strong inclusive offer that meets the vast majority of young people’s special educational needs in mainstream provision without the need for an EHCP. This raises the question of what impact meeting young people’s needs more effectively and earlier will have on the future need for EHCPs.
Our analysis so far has focused on using an “unmitigated” model to forecast growth, where we have assumed that current practice remains similar to recent years, with similar rate of requests for an EHCP assessment. In this briefing, we use our forecasting model to explore how changes to policy and practice, particularly investment in more inclusive mainstream provision and more robust SEN Support, could reshape the growth trajectory, reducing reliance on EHCPs and expensive independent placements.
What is inclusion?
Before we discuss the forecasts, it’s important to lay out what we mean by inclusion for young people with SEND. In our recent research for London Councils, we defined inclusion as:
Identifying and supporting the full range of needs through flexible provision, including a broad universal offer, with an emphasis on welcoming all young people and creating a feeling of belonging across the school community
More specifically, we outlined how this should be implemented though:
- An excellent universal offer, with high quality teaching that meets the needs of all pupils, including those with SEND.
- Flexibility to meet individual needs, including in approaches to timetabling, curriculum, school polices and the physical learning environment.
- A culture and ethos that values social, as well as educational, inclusion where schools work in partnership with families to understand needs and ensure young people with SEND feel welcomed.
- Early and accurate identification of needs without long delays.
If this inclusive vision can be implemented, then we will see the needs of young people with SEND more effectively met, with fewer requests for EHCP assessments and fewer young people moving into specialist provision.
Scenario modelling for EHCP assessment requests
Across England, the number of requests for an EHCP assessment has risen substantially in recent years. This is demonstrated in the chart below, which shows that as a proportion of young people aged 0 to 15 years olds in England, the request rate has risen from 0.69% in 2018 to 1.30% in 2023.
Figure 1 – The proportion of 0 to 15 year olds in England with requests for an EHCP assessment
Using our Wandsworth Mime SEND Forecasting Model, we have produced three alternative scenario forecasts to explore the impact of this request rate on the growth of England’s EHCP cohort, and these are shown in the chart below:
- The blue line represents our base “unmitigated” model, which we discussed in detail in the previous briefings in this series. This assumes that the rate of requests for EHCP assessments remains similar to that which has been seen in recent times (1.3% of 0 to 15 year olds)
- The green line represents the forecasted growth in England’s EHCP cohort if we assume that the rate of requests for an EHCP assessment falls back down to the levels we saw in 2019, prior to the Covid-19 pandemic (0.78% of 0 to 15 year olds)
- The purple line represents the forecasted growth in the EHCP cohort if the rate of requests for EHCP assessments continues to increase as we have seen over the previous few years. For this model, we have mirrored the increase in requests between 2019 and 2023, modelling a request rate of around 1.8% of 0 to 15 year olds)
Figure 2 – The impact of different EHCP assessment request rates on England’s EHCP cohort growth
In all three scenarios, we are still forecasting substantial growth in the size of the EHCP cohort over at least the next five years. This is a result of the increasingly large cohorts of primary age children with EHCPs ageing through the system and replacing smaller older cohorts as they do so. For example, the Year 10 EHCP cohort in 2030 is projected to be larger than the current Year 10 EHCP cohort in 2024. As these cohorts then age out of the EHCP system, the growth is forecast to plateau.
However, we do see a substantial difference in the long-run scale of growth across the three scenarios. In our base model we forecast a growth of around 60% by 2040. However, in our model which assumes that the request rate will continue to increase, the projected growth is substantially higher, with the cohort rising to well over a million by 2040, almost doubling from 2024. However, crucially, when modelling the impact of a fall in the request rate back to that which was seen in 2019, prior to the Covid-19 pandemic, we see substantially slower growth in the size of the EHCP cohort, increasing by around 20% from 2024 to 2040.
These alternative scenarios highlight the important role of the request rate for an EHCP assessment on the forecasted growth of the EHCP cohort. Therefore, the extent to which needs are met without the need for an EHCP assessment request is key.
To be clear, this does not mean that local authorities should implement arbitrary limits on requests or raise thresholds for accessing support. The young people for whom EHCPs are being requested have needs that require support above and beyond the support they would already be receiving through SEN Support. Therefore, the focus should instead be on improving both the SEN Support and universal support that young people can access without an EHCP. This would go some way to addressing the needs of young people earlier and more effectively and also stem the growth in EHCP assessment requests.
The impact of earlier issuing of EHCPs
As well as modelling the impact of the overall rate of requests for an EHCP assessment on the growth of the EHCP cohort, we can also explore the impact of the age at which EHCPs are issued.
A quarter of all new EHCPs are issued to 0 to 4 year olds, with the large majority of those being issued to reception pupils. Using our Wandsworth Mime SEND Forecasting Model, we can explore how increasing or decreasing the proportion of the reception cohort that request an EHCP assessment impacts overall cohort growth over time.
As in the previous section, we have produced three alternative scenario forecasts for England’s EHCP cohort, and these are shown in the chart below.
- The blue line represents our base model, where we assume that practices around the point at which requests for an EHCP assessment are made remain similar to what we have seen in recent years
- The green line models the impact of earlier requests for EHCP assessments, with a 50% increase in the proportion of the reception cohort requesting an EHCP assessment
- The purple line models the impact of later requests for an EHCP assessment, with a 50% decrease in the proportion of the reception cohort requesting an EHCP assessment. Instead, this model assumes these young people receive an EHCP later, as their needs are initially met through SEN Support and do not escalate as quickly
Figure 3 – The impact of earlier issuing of plans on the growth of England’s EHCP cohort
As can be seen in the chart above, altering the point at which requests for EHCP assessments are made can have a sizeable impact on the overall growth of the cohort. The earlier issuing model, with more EHCP assessment requests coming in reception, results in an additional 12% growth in the size of the EHCP cohort by 2040 compared to the base model, while later requests, with fewer requests in reception results in a 12% reduction in the overall cohort growth. Even though many of these young people may still go on to be issued with EHCPs later in their childhood, the reduction in the overall cohort growth is a result of young people holding plans for a shorter amount of time.
While reducing the rate at which reception pupils request an EHCP assessment would reduce the growth in the cohort of young people with an EHCP, this should never come at the cost of identifying the needs of a young person as early as possible. Early identification of need should remain the priority. Ensuring needs are then supported as early as possible is paramount in enabling young people with SEND to achieve the best possible outcomes and giving them the best chance to be included in mainstream education. By investing in improving the current SEN Support and universal offer and ensuring that local provision is inclusive and high quality, more young people will either have their needs met without an EHCP or require an EHCP for a shorter period of time. Not only is this beneficial for the young person, with their need being met in a local and high quality placement, local authorities would free up funding that could otherwise be used to further improve this universal offer or wider support services.
Conclusion
In this briefing, we have used the Wandsworth Mime SEND Forecasting model to explore how changes to the rate of requests for EHCP assessments, or to the point at which EHCP assessments are made, can have a substantial impact on the overall growth of England’s EHCP cohort. Improving the quality of both SEN Support and the universal offer, and ensuring local provision is inclusive for young people with SEND could therefore play a big role in addressing the forecast growth in the EHCP cohort.
In particular, our forecasts highlight how reducing the number of requests that come in through reception pupils can disproportionately reduce the growth of England’s EHCP cohort. However, this should not come at the cost of ensuring a young person’s need is identified and supported as early as possible. Instead, better earlier provision can ensure that more needs are met without the requirement for an EHCP, or that an EHCP is required for a shorter period of time.
With reforms to the SEND system on the horizon and in anticipation of a SEND White Paper, we hope that the analysis and evidence presented in these three briefings will be used to inform crucial policy and investment decisions aimed at better supporting young people with SEND. Ensuring our schools are an inclusive place for young people with SEND should be advanced as a common goal, helping to address issues created by the fast-growing EHCP cohort, while improving experiences and outcomes for young people with SEND.
Get in touch if you would like to hear more and discuss how we can support with your forecasting requirements!
